厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜对油菜籽主要出口国影响复盘

Core Insights - The impact of El Niño and La Niña on canola seed production varies by region, with different probabilities of yield changes based on climatic conditions during different growth stages [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][10][15]. Group 1: El Niño Effects - In Canada, initial high temperatures during sowing may lead to a higher probability of reduced yield (44%), but an increase in area planted (56%) could offset this, resulting in a 67% chance of overall yield increase [1]. - Ukraine experiences dry conditions during the planting period, with a high probability of reduced yield (78%), yet an increase in area planted (56%) suggests that total production may not decline (56% chance of increase) [1]. - Australia faces high temperatures and drought during the growing season, leading to a 78% probability of reduced yield and a 67% chance of overall production decline [2]. - In Russia, some areas may experience cold conditions during the growing season, with a 63% probability of reduced area planted and a 50% chance of reduced yield [3]. - The EU is expected to face wet and hot conditions, with an 86% probability of reduced yield and a 57% chance of decreased area planted [3]. Group 2: La Niña Effects - In Canada, only a small portion of the western coastal region is affected by cold temperatures, leading to a 55% probability of reduced yield, but a 64% chance of increased area planted suggests that total production may not decline (73% chance of increase) [4]. - Australia is expected to see consistent yield increases, with an 82% probability of increased area planted and a 73% chance of increased yield [5]. - In Ukraine and the EU, there is a high probability of increased yield during the growing and harvesting periods, with Ukraine showing a 78% chance of increased yield despite a 67% probability of reduced area planted [5]. - In Russia, the harvesting period may see high temperatures, leading to a 71% probability of reduced yield, but a 100% chance of increased area planted suggests that total production may not decline (71% chance of increase) [6]. Group 3: Summary of Probabilities - Regardless of whether El Niño or La Niña occurs, Canada and Russia show higher probabilities of reduced yield, while Australia is more likely to see increased production under La Niña and reduced production under El Niño [6]. - Ukraine and the EU have a higher probability of increased yield under La Niña, while El Niño presents a higher risk of reduced yield, with Ukraine's area planted often inversely related to yield changes [6].