10月，印度黄金进口激增200%

Core Insights - India's gold imports in October reached a record high of $14.72 billion, nearly tripling year-on-year, significantly impacting the country's trade deficit, which expanded to a historic $41.7 billion [1][2][3] - The surge in gold imports is attributed to festive demand, with consumers estimated to have purchased $11 billion worth of gold during a five-day festival period in October [1][2] - The increase in imports coincides with a decline in exports to the U.S., which fell by 8.5% to $6.3 billion in October, influenced by a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Indian goods [4] Gold Import Dynamics - In the first seven months of the fiscal year (April to October), gold imports totaled $41.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.44% [2] - Switzerland remains the largest source of gold for India, accounting for approximately 40% of imports, with a significant increase of 403.67% in October [2] - Silver imports also saw a substantial rise, jumping 528.71% to $2.71 billion in October [2] Trade Deficit Analysis - The record trade deficit of $41.7 billion in October surpassed market expectations and previous records, indicating a significant impact from increased gold imports [1][3] - ICRA Research forecasts that the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP could rise to 2.4%-2.5% in the third quarter of the fiscal year [3] Export Performance - The U.S. remains the largest export destination for India, with exports totaling $52 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year, despite recent declines [4] - Major export categories such as gemstones, jewelry, and engineering products experienced significant drops, with jewelry exports down 29.5% in October [4] Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have yet to yield an agreement, although there are indications of softened positions from both sides [5]