招银国际：维持零跑汽车(09863)“买入”评级 Q4盈利或将更具韧性

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoyin International reports that Leap Motor (09863) maintains robust profitability in its automotive business for Q3, with revenue increasing by 37% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 19.5 billion, exceeding previous forecasts by 5% due to higher-than-expected average selling prices [1] Financial Performance - Q3 gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 14.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Combined sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 14.3%, aligning with forecasts [1] - Net profit remained stable at RMB 150 million, primarily influenced by non-automotive business factors [1] Future Outlook - Q4 profitability is expected to be more resilient, with sales forecasted to increase by 29% quarter-on-quarter to 224,000 units, raising the 2025 sales forecast by 20,000 units to 620,000 units [1] - Anticipated net profit for Q4 could increase 4.5 times quarter-on-quarter to RMB 677 million, considering potential carbon credit income of RMB 500 million [1] - Strong sales momentum is projected to continue into 2026, with over 25,000 new orders from Europe in October-November 2025 [1] Sales Targets - Leap Motor's overseas sales target of 100,000 to 150,000 units for 2026 is deemed achievable [1] - Total sales are expected to grow by 52% year-on-year to 940,000 units in 2026, driven by the launch of the Lafa5 and four new models (two D series and two A series) [1] - The D19 model, unveiled on October 16, has received significantly higher pre-order volumes than management expectations, enhancing confidence in the A series models for the following year [1]