Core Insights - The article discusses the dynamics of oil prices influenced by geopolitical risks and supply-demand factors, highlighting the recent fluctuations in international oil prices due to events in Russia and the Middle East [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $59.91 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.20 per barrel, both down by 0.30% [1] - Following an attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port, oil prices had previously surged over 2%, indicating the sensitivity of oil prices to geopolitical events [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Recent geopolitical events, including Ukraine's attack on the Novorossiysk port and Iran's seizure of a tanker, have injected new risk premiums into oil prices amid global supply surplus concerns [1][3] - U.S. President Trump's comments on potential military action in Venezuela and sanctions against countries engaging with Russia add to the geopolitical tension affecting oil markets [2][3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is currently characterized by weak supply and demand, leading to a lack of clear drivers for oil prices, which are expected to remain volatile [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that while a supply surplus may pressure prices in the near term, demand growth could tighten the market by 2027, leading to a potential price recovery [2] Group 4: Soft Power in Oil Markets - The article emphasizes the importance of soft power in the oil market, suggesting that future price movements will depend more on geopolitical strategies and less on traditional supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - Key competitive factors in the future oil market include the ability to set technical standards, financial rule restructuring, and managing alliances among oil-producing countries [4]
邓正红能源软实力：俄罗斯乌拉尔原油价格暴跌 供应不确定性抵消地缘风险溢价
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-18 04:14