2026年，你的钱该放哪里？一份“哑铃型”配置指南

Group 1 - The core viewpoint for 2026 asset direction emphasizes "policy efforts and the rise of new momentum, with A-shares remaining the core battlefield, but structure being more important than position" [1] - In 2026, the macro environment is characterized by a "comprehensive effort period" for policies, with GDP targets expected to remain around 5%, and monetary easing and fiscal expansion as the main themes [1][2] - Key economic indicators for 2026 include a projected actual GDP growth of 5.0%, nominal GDP growth of 5.1%, and a retail sales growth of 4.5% [2][3] Group 2 - The export growth for 2026 is expected to be around 5%, with a recovery in exports to the U.S. and highlights in the "Belt and Road" initiative and AI industry chain [3][4] - The investment strategy suggested is a "barbell strategy," focusing on both growth and consumption, with a moderate rotation in between [5][6] - The technology growth sector is highlighted, focusing on "new momentum" such as AI, new energy, and self-controlled technologies, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][5] Group 3 - The consumption sector is seen as a key area for structural recovery in 2026, with specific attention to sectors like medical services, aviation, home appliances, and non-alcoholic beverages, which show strong earnings growth and low valuations [7][8] - The "招商上证消费80ETF联接C" is recommended as a long-term investment tool for exposure to the consumer sector, with a focus on stable earnings and low fees [7][8] - The "招商中证白酒指数C" is identified as a stable investment in the consumer sector, with strong performance expected leading up to the Spring Festival [8][9]