10月财政支出放缓，年末地方债发行加速助力稳增长

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for January to October reached 186,490 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, indicating a slight acceleration in growth compared to the previous nine months [1] - Public budget expenditure for the same period was 225,825 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but the growth rate has slowed down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] Revenue Analysis - In October, public budget revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with tax revenue increasing by 8.6% while non-tax revenue fell by 33% [1] - Major tax categories showed varied performance: VAT revenue grew by 7.2%, consumption tax revenue increased by 4.5%, while corporate income tax growth slowed to 7.3% [2][4] - Personal income tax revenue surged by 27.3%, reflecting both a low base effect and improved tax collection efforts [2] Expenditure Analysis - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 3.1% increase in the previous month, indicating a significant drop in spending [4][5] - The decline in expenditure is attributed to a high base from the previous year and local fiscal constraints [4] - Infrastructure-related spending saw substantial declines, with specific categories like energy conservation and transportation experiencing double-digit decreases [4][5] Broader Fiscal Context - The cumulative growth rate of general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 76.0%, below the five-year average of 77.4% [5] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue dropping by 7.4% [5] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% in October, a significant drop compared to a 2.3% increase in September, influenced by high base effects and prior fiscal measures [6] Future Outlook - The issuance of 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt is expected to accelerate in November and December, potentially supporting fiscal expenditure and economic recovery [1][6][7] - The implementation of new policy financial tools also indicates a strengthening of fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing growth [7]