黄金进口激增近200%！印度10月贸易逆差飙至历史新高

Core Viewpoint - India's merchandise trade deficit reached a record $41.68 billion in October, driven by a staggering 199.2% year-on-year increase in gold imports to $14.72 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations and last year's figures [1] Group 1: Gold Imports - Gold imports in India surged to a record $14.72 billion in October, accounting for 19.35% of total merchandise imports of $76.06 billion [1] - The increase in gold imports was fueled by a strong demand during the traditional festive season, with estimated purchases reaching $11 billion [2] - The price of gold in India remained high at approximately ₹129,000 per 10 grams (around $1,540), yet demand continued to rise due to cultural significance and inflation hedging [2] Group 2: Trade Deficit and Exports - The trade deficit expanded significantly due to a sharp decline in exports, which fell by 11.8% year-on-year to $34.38 billion, marking an 11-month low [3] - Exports to the U.S. decreased for the second consecutive month, down 8.6% to $6.3 billion, influenced by increased tariffs on Indian products [3] - The jewelry sector experienced a notable decline, with gem and jewelry exports dropping by 29.5%, contrasting sharply with the surge in gold imports [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the record gold imports in October, forecasts suggest a gradual decline in import levels in the coming months, particularly after the festive season [4] - The current account deficit is expected to widen from 1.8% of GDP in the second quarter to 2.4%-2.5% in the third quarter of the fiscal year [4] - Ongoing global economic slowdown, geopolitical uncertainties, and commodity price fluctuations are anticipated to continue pressuring export recovery [4]