普徕仕：美联储12月减息机率为五成 料明年上半年不减息 下半年政策待观察

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is experiencing rare internal divisions regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with a 50% chance of interest rate cuts in December due to hawkish concerns about inflation risks. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 may be overly optimistic, and unless there is an unexpected economic downturn, no cuts are anticipated in the first half of 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to benefit from a significant increase in capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence in 2025, further supported by the capital expenditure incentives from the "Inflation Reduction Act" [1] - The anticipated effects of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at the end of 2025 are expected to extend into 2026, providing additional support for economic growth [1] Labor Market - The employment market is projected to shift from a current state of low job additions and minimal layoffs to a phase of expansion [1] Inflation Risks - Inflation remains a primary risk, with U.S. government debt exceeding 120% of GDP. Policies such as tariffs and immigration restrictions may exacerbate inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's goal of achieving a 2% inflation target [1]