SHANXI SECURITIES(SZ:002500) 智通财经网·2025-11-18 06:31Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the coal sector for Q4, highlighting that coal price support is expected due to limited supply growth and increased demand during the winter peak season [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: From January to October 2025, cumulative raw coal production reached 3.973 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but the growth rate is declining. In October alone, production was 407 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year and 1.16% month-on-month [1] - Demand: The overall terminal demand has been declining, but thermal power demand has increased. Fixed asset investment from January to October 2025 fell by 1.7%, with manufacturing investment up by 2.7%, infrastructure investment down by 0.1%, and real estate investment down by 14.7%. Thermal power growth was -0.4%, while coke and pig iron saw growth rates of 3.3% and -1.8%, respectively [1] Import Trends - In October, coal imports decreased month-on-month, continuing a contraction trend for the year. Cumulative imports from January to October 2025 totaled 388 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%. October's imports were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year and 9.27% month-on-month [2] Price Movements - Coal prices saw an unexpected increase in October. Despite adjustments in average prices for various coal types since the beginning of 2025, October showed a divergence in price increases, with thermal coal rising more than coking coal and coke [2] Market Dynamics - Post-holiday coal prices surged unexpectedly due to supply contraction expectations driven by "anti-involution" policies, adverse weather, and maintenance on key transport lines. Increased purchasing activity from downstream power plants and rising electricity demand contributed to this price acceleration [3] Policy Considerations - If coal prices rise significantly in the short term, it may attract renewed policy attention. The "anti-involution" policies aim to ensure reasonable profit margins across the supply chain, and any sustained price increases beyond 800 yuan per ton could lead to regulatory responses, including production adjustments and supply meetings [4]