大而美”东风起+AI投资独舞：大摩解码2026年美国经济“金发姑娘式软着陆

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the OBBBA tax reform, effective from 2026, will significantly boost economic growth, alongside the temporary inflation effects from Trump's tariffs dissipating, leading to a "Goldilocks" economic environment in the U.S. by 2026 [1][3] Economic Growth Projections - The macro analysis team at Morgan Stanley forecasts U.S. real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, suggesting a gradual return to a "Goldilocks" scenario where growth is moderate and inflation is stable [1][2][3] Consumer Spending and Inflation - Consumer spending is expected to slow down in 2026 but not collapse, with inflation gradually receding and interest rates declining, which will support spending among lower-income groups [5][8] - The anticipated inflation effects from tariffs are expected to fade in the second half of 2026, allowing for increased consumer spending as the Federal Reserve implements preventive rate cuts [8][11] Investment Trends - AI-related investments are projected to contribute positively to GDP growth, while non-AI investments are expected to recover slowly from a previous drag on growth [11][12] - Significant AI investments by major tech companies like Microsoft and Google are expected to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth annually from 2026 to 2027 [11][12] Stock Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley defines 2026 as the "Year of Risk Reboot," with a focus on strong corporate earnings driven by fiscal and monetary stimulus, projecting the S&P 500 index to rise to 7800 points [4] Trade and Net Exports - The role of net exports in GDP growth is expected to be minimal, with a slight increase in export growth projected at around 2% in 2026, influenced by ongoing trade uncertainties and the gradual fading of tariff impacts [17]