金荣中国：现货黄金维持隔夜弱势局面，挑战本周低点4010以下水平

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently facing downward pressure, trading around $4013 after a significant drop on November 17, where it fell nearly 2% to a low of $4006.80 per ounce, closing at approximately $4045 [1] - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, leading to a strong rebound in the US dollar index, which rose by 0.25% to 99.54. This makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, contributing to a decline in bullish sentiment towards gold [1] - The 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 1 basis point to 3.606%, while the 10-year yield decreased by 1.7 basis points to 4.131%, resulting in a flattening of the yield curve to 52.3 basis points. Despite this appearing favorable for gold, concerns over AI financing risks are causing funds to flow back into US Treasuries rather than gold, diluting gold's "safe-haven premium" [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have plummeted from over 60% to below 40% within a week, with current probabilities at 41% according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - The upcoming release of delayed economic data, particularly the September non-farm payrolls on Thursday, is a focal point for the market, with expectations that it may not be as weak as anticipated, potentially giving the Fed more reason to hold off on rate cuts [3][4] Geopolitical Situation - Israeli far-right political figures are calling for actions against Palestinian leadership if the UN recognizes Palestine as a state, which could escalate tensions in the region [4] - The overall sentiment regarding the Fed's rate cut expectations is negatively impacting short-term gold prices, with traders closely monitoring the upcoming US non-farm payroll data and Fed meeting minutes [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices have recorded a bearish closing, hitting a new weekly low, with a potential further decline if the price breaks below the key support level of $4030, possibly challenging the previous low around $3886 [7] - Short-term trends show a rapid decline from a high of $4245, with multiple attempts to stabilize around $4100 failing, leading to further downward movement below the critical support level of $4030 [7]