日债危机重现？财政刺激担忧加剧，日本“股债汇”三杀，长债收益率再创新高

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over a new large-scale economic stimulus plan in Japan are causing turmoil in the bond market, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields and downward pressure on the yen, impacting the stock and currency markets simultaneously [1][2][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The price of Japanese long-term government bonds has plummeted, with the 40-year bond yield rising by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest since its issuance in 2007 [1]. - The 20-year and 30-year bond yields have also increased by at least 4 basis points, with the 30-year yield nearing historical highs [1]. Group 2: Yen Exchange Rate - The yen has weakened significantly, with the exchange rate against the US dollar falling below the critical psychological level of 155 and reaching a historical low of 180 against the euro [2]. Group 3: Economic Stimulus Plan Speculation - Market speculation centers on the anticipated scale of the economic stimulus plan, which is expected to exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen (approximately 89.8 billion USD) [7][8]. - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama indicated that the plan has "expanded significantly" so far, heightening investor anxiety over potential new debt issuance [8]. Group 4: Internal Political Pressure - Pressure from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party may lead to more aggressive fiscal measures, with a proposal for a supplementary budget of approximately 25 trillion yen (about 161 billion USD) being submitted [10]. - This figure significantly exceeds previous media reports of a supplementary budget around 14 trillion yen and a total plan scale of 17 trillion yen [10]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Upcoming Auctions - Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic ahead of the upcoming 20-year bond auction, with expectations of weak demand for the 800 billion yen (approximately 51.6 million USD) bonds [11]. - Analysts predict that if demand is weak, yields may rise further, reflecting concerns over the expanding stimulus plan and delayed interest rate hikes by the central bank [11][14]. Group 6: Yield Curve Dynamics - The steepening of the yield curve indicates that long-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields, reflecting market expectations of increased long-term risk premiums due to government borrowing [14]. - The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.745%, reaching its highest level since June 2008 [11][14].