Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-18 08:01Core Insights - The global storage chip contract prices have experienced a rare nonlinear surge since Q2 2025, driven by the high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100 [1] - Major storage manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting production capacity from traditional PC DRAM and NAND to more profitable HBM, tightening supply for traditional PC DRAM and NAND [1][2] - Companies like Lenovo and Apple are viewed as exceptions that may benefit from this storage price upcycle due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [1][3] Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for high-performance SSDs and HBM has surged due to AI data centers, leading manufacturers to prioritize higher-margin products, which in turn has squeezed the supply of mid-range DDR and client SSDs [2] - In 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [2] - The average bill of materials (BOM) for laptops shows that DRAM and NAND typically account for 10-20% of costs, meaning a 20% increase in storage costs could raise BOM by $30-50, significantly impacting profit margins if not passed on to consumers [2] Impact on PC Manufacturers - Consumer-oriented manufacturers like Dell, HP, and Acer are particularly vulnerable to rising storage costs, with their PC businesses heavily reliant on the consumer market [3] - The average selling price of consumer PCs is projected to be around $620 in 2025, making these companies sensitive to price increases, which could lead to a decline in sales or profit margins [3] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Dell and HP are the most sensitive to rising storage prices, predicting a 2-4 percentage point decline in their PC gross margins for FY 2026 [3] Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo and Apple are better positioned to withstand the pressures of rising storage prices due to their strong supply chain control and customer structures [4][6] - Lenovo's market share exceeds 25%, with over 65% of its revenue coming from enterprise and government clients, allowing it to pass on costs more effectively [6][7] - Apple maintains absolute control over its supply chain, often securing long-term contracts that ensure priority access to components, allowing it to keep costs low and maintain high product prices [9][10] Long-term Outlook - Despite the pressure from rising storage prices, both Lenovo and Apple are expected to maintain or even expand their market shares during this "super cycle" of storage price increases [10] - The current situation is likely to accelerate industry differentiation and reshuffling, with Lenovo and Apple potentially gaining a competitive edge over other PC manufacturers [10]