Ge Long Hui·2025-11-18 08:09Core Viewpoint - The global storage chip contract prices have experienced a rare nonlinear surge since Q2 2025, driven by the high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI accelerators like NVIDIA's H100, leading to a tightening supply of traditional PC DRAM and NAND [1][3][15] Supply Chain Dynamics - The demand for high-performance SSDs and HBM has led manufacturers to prioritize production for high-margin products, resulting in a squeeze on mid-to-low-end DDR and client SSD supplies, which in turn drives up spot and contract prices [3][7] - By 2025, the global DRAM market revenue is expected to exceed $200 billion, with HBM contributing over half of the profit growth despite accounting for less than 30% of the market [3][15] - Major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting their production capacity towards HBM and enterprise SSDs, leading to a significant reduction in traditional PC DRAM supply [3][6] Impact on PC Manufacturers - Consumer-oriented manufacturers such as Dell, HP, and Acer are particularly vulnerable to rising storage costs due to their high reliance on the consumer market, where price sensitivity is extreme [4][6] - The average selling price of global consumer PCs is projected to be around $620 in 2025, making it difficult for these manufacturers to pass on increased costs without risking a decline in sales [4][6] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Dell and HP are the most sensitive to storage price increases, with expected declines in PC gross margins by 2-4 percentage points in FY 2026 [4][6] Resilience of Lenovo and Apple - Lenovo and Apple are viewed as exceptions that may benefit from the storage price surge due to their strong customer bases and supply chain management capabilities [1][6][15] - Lenovo's market share exceeds 25%, with over 65% of its revenue coming from enterprise and government clients, allowing it to better absorb cost increases [8][10] - Apple maintains a dominant position in the high-end market, enabling it to quickly pass on costs to consumers, supported by long-term contracts with suppliers that ensure priority access to components [13][15] Long-term Outlook - The current surge in storage prices is expected to continue, potentially leading to a reshaping of the PC industry, with Lenovo and Apple likely to maintain or even expand their market shares during this period [15]