花旗：全球降息潮支撑经济温和增长，预计明年中国增速约5%

Core Viewpoint - The global economic resilience, tariff restructuring, and monetary policy shifts are central themes, with China's growth expected to be around 5% next year, supported by domestic demand recovery and export resilience [1][6]. Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is projected at approximately 2.7% for this year, slightly down from 2.8% last year, but still within a reasonable range [2]. - Global inflation has decreased to 2%, returning to pre-pandemic levels, while core inflation remains moderate [2]. Tariff Policies - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports has surged from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to about 15%, the highest level since the 1930s [3]. - The share of U.S. imports from China has dropped from 13% to 8%, while trade with Taiwan, Vietnam, Mexico, and Thailand has significantly increased [3]. Monetary Policy Trends - A global interest rate cut cycle is underway, with about 25 out of 30 major central banks implementing rate cuts this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates several times by the end of next year due to a weak labor market, while the European Central Bank plans two more rate cuts [4]. Employment and AI Impact - A new phenomenon termed "jobless prosperity" is emerging, where GDP growth is strong but employment data is weak [5]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on lower-skilled jobs is becoming evident, posing a long-term challenge for policymakers [5]. China's Economic Projections - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters has reached 5.2%, with a high likelihood of achieving the 5% growth target for the year [6]. - The growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with favorable factors such as a potential U.S.-China trade agreement [7]. Policy Framework - The fiscal policy is expected to be dominant, with a projected budget deficit rate of 4% and significant local government bond issuance to support economic growth [8]. - Structural policies will focus on boosting consumption, with subsidies and investments in key areas such as childcare and elderly care [9]. External Environment and Trade - Improved U.S.-China trade relations and potential tariff reductions are anticipated, with China's exports expected to grow by 13% in 2024 [9]. - China has found alternative export paths, which may provide a competitive advantage over ASEAN countries if some tariffs are lifted [9]. Capital Market Insights - The Chinese stock market is viewed positively, with 60% of the market being growth-oriented and a significant portion of profits linked to AI [10].