李稻葵：建议未来5年增发10万亿新型城镇化特别国债 直接给到县级政府

Core Viewpoint - The central government is advised to issue approximately 10 trillion yuan in "special bonds for new urbanization" during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an annual investment of around 2 trillion yuan, directly allocated to county-level governments [1][22]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Demand Expansion - One of the core tasks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is to promote and expand domestic demand to ensure that the economic growth rate not only maintains but gradually recovers to a reasonable level, with the urgency of this task exceeding general expectations [4][7]. - The nominal GDP growth rate should be restored to about 7% to maintain a virtuous cycle of stable employment, income growth, and improved corporate profits [7][9]. - The current nominal GDP growth rate is approximately 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, but when adjusted for comparable data, the actual nominal growth rate is only about 4.1%, the lowest since the reform and opening up [4][7]. Group 2: Urbanization and Population Integration - Approximately 700 million people in China have not yet fully entered modern economic life, and enhancing their urbanization level is crucial to releasing significant consumption potential [9][13]. - The population can be divided into two categories: 350 million migrant workers who have not fully urbanized and 350 million long-term rural residents, both of whom have limited consumption capabilities [11][13]. - The new urbanization strategy aims to integrate these populations into modern economic life, which is essential for boosting overall demand [13][14]. Group 3: Local Government Challenges - Local governments face challenges such as insufficient incentives and limited capabilities, which need to be addressed through reforms [14][18]. - The current debt of local governments may amount to 100% of GDP, creating a burden that affects their ability to invest in urbanization and public services [18][20]. - Reforming the performance evaluation system for local officials to include urbanization-related indicators is necessary to motivate local governments to focus on urbanization efforts [15][17]. Group 4: Financial Strategies for Urbanization - The central government is encouraged to issue long-term bonds to alleviate local government debt and fund urbanization projects, which can help manage these debts at a lower cost [22][23]. - It is feasible to increase the central government’s debt from 27% to about 80% of GDP, with 10 trillion yuan earmarked for urbanization efforts during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [22][23]. - The proposed funding could support the urbanization of approximately 100 million agricultural transfer populations, significantly altering the urban-rural population structure and driving domestic demand [25][26].