Ultima Markets金价预测：黄金/美元可能打开至3950美元的下行空间？

Core Insights - Gold continues its downward trend, seeking to retest the $4000 mark amid a strong dollar and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Market Sentiment - Gold closed below the 21-day moving average on Monday, with the daily RSI turning bearish, indicating weakness as it extends a four-day decline [2] - Risk aversion in the market has supported the dollar, which has suppressed gold prices [4] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish comments have impacted gold prices, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping to 42% [5] - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized the need for a "slow progression" towards further rate cuts, influencing market sentiment [5] Economic Data and Future Outlook - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is a key event, with the market eager for insights into the labor market, especially following a series of weak private sector employment data [6] - Despite a slight rebound in gold prices due to a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the outlook remains bearish as the dollar is expected to remain strong ahead of the economic data release [6] Technical Analysis - Gold is trading at $4022.86, with the 21-day simple moving average at $4048.65 indicating short-term momentum weakness [9] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4075.05 and $4133.50, while the 50-day moving average at $3954.55 serves as a support level [9]