专访华创证券研究所副所长张瑜：看股做债，未来红利策略依然有效，十年战略级别看多黄金

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of expanding domestic demand to drive China's economic recovery and achieve high-quality development, while also addressing the resilience of foreign trade amidst external shocks and the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets in a global context [2][5][12]. Economic Outlook - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, as all economic leading indicators are showing upward trends for the first time in three years, indicating potential improvement in the economic cycle [5][6]. - The GDP growth target of 5% for the year is considered achievable based on the economic data from the first three quarters [5]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Key measures to boost domestic consumption include the deployment of policy financial tools and the release of local debt limits, alongside efforts to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence in the economy [7]. - Confidence in long-term economic transformation and mid-term price recovery is crucial, with a focus on observable price signals such as stock and housing prices [7]. Foreign Trade and External Demand - China's foreign trade shows strong resilience, but external demand is expected to face short-term adjustment pressures, with a moderate recovery anticipated in the first half of the following year [8]. - Eleven out of twenty leading indicators suggest a potential recovery in external demand, although caution is advised due to the risk of demand overextension [8]. Industry Policy and New Economic Growth - The article outlines a clear framework for modernizing the industrial system, categorizing industries into traditional, emerging, and future sectors, each requiring tailored policy support [9][10]. - Traditional industries will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, while emerging industries will see a shift from subsidies to market-oriented support [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The investment landscape suggests a shift from bonds to equities, with a focus on dividend strategies across various industries, particularly those with low valuations and high dividend yields [5][12]. - The article highlights the ongoing strong momentum for gold, driven by non-traditional macro factors, and suggests a long-term bullish outlook on gold as global order remains unstable [12][14].