This Fintech Stock Had an Incredible 2025. Can Its Run Continue Into 2026?

Core Viewpoint - SoFi Technologies has experienced significant growth and popularity among U.S. consumers, leading to a substantial increase in its stock price, which has risen by 80% since January [2][3]. Group 1: Business Performance - SoFi's user base has expanded dramatically from over 1 million members in early 2020 to over 12.6 million as of Q3 this year, with a year-over-year growth of 35% in Q3 [3][4]. - The company's revenue and profits have surged alongside user growth, positioning SoFi as one of the fastest-growing fintech companies globally [5]. - Approximately 40% of SoFi's product growth in Q3 originated from existing members, enhancing profitability as existing customers are less costly to acquire [4]. Group 2: Student Loan Business - SoFi's success has occurred with minimal contribution from its student loan business, which was previously a significant revenue source before the COVID-19 pandemic-induced student loan freeze [7]. - The student loan industry remains complex, with 42.5 million Americans holding $1.8 trillion in student loan debt [8]. - Student loan originations increased by 58% year-over-year in Q3, indicating potential for continued growth as borrowers return to repayment schedules [11]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - SoFi's tangible book value (TBV) has increased to over $7.1 billion, more than double its TBV from two years ago, reflecting strong financial health [12]. - The company anticipates its TBV to increase by $2.5 billion in 2025, significantly higher than previous guidance, with a projected year-end TBV of just under $7.2 billion, a 47% increase from last year [13]. - SoFi's current price-to-TBV ratio is approximately 4.7, indicating a premium valuation compared to most banks, justified by its rapid growth [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Sustaining or improving growth will be crucial for SoFi's investment upside moving into 2026, as the stock's valuation has risen significantly [16]. - Economic conditions may pose challenges, as banks are vulnerable to recessions, which could impact SoFi and other bank stocks [17]. - Despite its strong performance, investors may need to temper expectations for 2026 following a robust 2025 [17].