美联储决策与市场，数据真空下的降息迷局

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has fluctuated dramatically, influenced by a "data drought" caused by a government shutdown, leaving the Fed in a challenging position with limited economic data to inform its decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The current market confusion stems from a lack of essential economic data, with only September and November non-farm payroll data available before the December FOMC meeting, while critical CPI inflation readings are missing [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation and consumer spending data for October will not be released in time, while UBS warns that the absence of October CPI data could lead to significant distortions in subsequent months' inflation figures [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Significance - Employment data has become the sole lifeline for interest rate cut decisions, with expectations that negative job growth in November and a rise in unemployment above 4.4% could drive the Fed to cut rates in December [4]. - In the absence of hard data, statements from Fed officials have taken precedence, with some supporting rate cuts due to concerns over a weak labor market, while others caution that strong economic growth may hinder price declines [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The next two weeks are critical for market dynamics, with alternative data, institutional assessments, and public statements from officials likely to influence expectations [6]. - The lack of solid data creates a volatile environment, with the Fed facing pressures for easing due to labor market weakness while lacking clear evidence of controlled inflation, leading to a "dilemma" in policy-making [6].