百利好晚盘分析：美国经济数据改善 金价短期仍将承压

Group 1: Gold Market - The geopolitical situation remains uncertain as the UN Security Council supports the US President Trump's peace plan for Gaza, while Hamas refuses to disarm, indicating ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas [1] - US economic data shows resilience, with the New York Fed manufacturing index for November at 18.7, significantly above the expected 5.8 and previous 10.7, suggesting short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to underlying issues with US dollar credibility, despite short-term economic improvements potentially pressuring gold prices [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Global crude oil supply remains high, with Russian ports resuming exports and US refinery utilization increasing seasonally, maintaining a supply-rich environment [2] - US economic resilience and trade agreements with other economies may improve oil demand, with the EU raising its GDP growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.3%, indicating potential recovery in oil demand [2] - Overall, the oil market consensus is that supply is ample, which may limit price increases, while demand may be stabilizing, suggesting a period of adjustment for oil prices [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - Recent US economic data mostly exceeded expectations, indicating a robust economy, while the Fed does not prioritize the employment market as a key factor for monetary policy adjustments [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is at 42.9%, with a 57.1% chance of no cut, suggesting reduced likelihood of further rate cuts in the near term [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The dollar index has shown support at the 62-day moving average, with two consecutive days of gains, indicating potential for further upward movement [4] - The Nikkei 225 index is showing weakness, trading below the 20-day moving average, with risks of breaking below the 62-day moving average, which could open up further downside [5] - Copper prices are also under pressure, with multiple days of declines and potential for further drops if the 62-day moving average is breached [6] Group 5: Market Overview - Goldman Sachs indicates that central banks may significantly purchase gold in November, maintaining a price forecast of $4,900 by the end of next year [7] - The EU has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 1.3%, while lowering next year's forecast from 1.4% to 1.2% [7]