Ge Long Hui·2025-11-18 09:46Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous decline of gold and U.S. stocks signals tightening market liquidity, as investors are forced to sell profitable assets to cover losses in other holdings [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell below the critical support level of 6725 points, marking its first close below the 50-day moving average in 139 trading days [2]. - Bitcoin dropped below $90,000, erasing its 30% gain for the year, while spot gold fell below $4020, marking four consecutive days of decline [3]. - Asian markets followed suit with significant declines, including a drop of over 3% in the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI, while the Hang Seng Index fell 1.74% below 26,000 points [3]. Group 2: Liquidity Concerns - Market liquidity is tightening, as indicated by the near-zero usage of the Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement (ONRRP) and a reduction in bank reserves to $2.83 trillion, which is considered slightly tight [4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including a temporary meeting with major Wall Street dealers to address liquidity pressures in the repo market, highlight their awareness of the liquidity issues [4][6]. Group 3: ETF Inflows and Outflows - Despite a general outflow of 10.35 billion yuan from stock ETFs, there was a strong net inflow of 116.3 billion yuan into cross-border stock ETFs, particularly favoring the Hang Seng Technology Index and other innovative sectors [12]. - The top inflows for ETFs included the SGE Gold 9999 with a net inflow of 55.73 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech 50 with 35.32 billion yuan [14]. Group 4: Notable Investment Moves - Billionaire investor Peter Thiel's fund significantly reduced its holdings in Nvidia by two-thirds and cut its Tesla shares by 76%, while initiating positions in Microsoft and Apple, reflecting concerns over the AI valuation bubble [16][17]. - Thiel's actions align with his previous warnings about the AI hype cycle, comparing it to the 1999 internet bubble, indicating a cautious stance towards current market valuations [18].