沪镍创五年新低 成本支撑逻辑还有效吗？【机构会诊】

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have recently hit five-year lows after a prolonged period of fluctuation around the 120,000 yuan mark, primarily due to oversupply and weakening demand in the market [1] Supply and Demand Factors - Nickel has been in a state of oversupply for over two years, with production capacity in Indonesia and domestically slowing down, yet still releasing excess capacity [2] - LME refined nickel inventories have surpassed 200,000 tons, with a recent increase of over 5,000 tons, indicating growing industry pressure [2] - Demand from the downstream sector, particularly for nickel sulfate used in electric vehicles, has shown signs of slowing, contributing to market pressure [2][3] Price Dynamics - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to both fundamental and financial factors, including a slight decrease in benchmark prices for nickel ore and weak demand from stainless steel and new energy sectors [3] - LME nickel inventory reached 257,694 tons, with domestic SMM social inventory exceeding 50,000 tons, indicating significant inventory pressure [3] - Nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to remain in a bearish trend, with prices recently breaking below the 120,000 yuan support level [4] Cost Support Logic - Recent price adjustments in Indonesian nickel ore have shown a slight decline, with domestic benchmark prices dropping by 0.14-0.39 USD per wet ton [5] - The cost support for nickel may become more pronounced as the profitability of nickel iron is squeezed by both upstream and downstream pressures [5] - Current price levels have fallen below the cost of fire refining, suggesting that cost support may hinge on wet refining costs [5][6] Future Price Trends - High inventory levels are expected to suppress prices in the short term, but potential cost support may emerge as nickel iron prices approach production cost levels [7] - Future price movements will depend on whether domestic primary nickel production shows signs of slowing and if Indonesia implements new industrial policies [7] - Recent reports indicate that Indonesia may limit new smelting plant licenses and adjust nickel production targets, which could impact future supply dynamics [7][8]