每日机构分析：11月18日

Group 1 - The Philippine economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 due to multiple internal and external pressures, including natural disasters, governance issues, and reduced fiscal spending, alongside the impact of U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current stock market rally driven by AI hype may be overly optimistic, with many potential earnings already reflected in stock prices, leading to inflated revenue and profit expectations [1][2] - The Bank of America survey indicates that 45% of respondents view the AI bubble as the biggest tail risk, while 54% consider the "Magnificent Seven" stocks as the most crowded trade, suggesting a potential market correction if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates [3] Group 2 - The Singapore Monetary Authority is likely to maintain its current policy in 2025 to retain flexibility amid ongoing global uncertainties, aligning with a near-closed output gap and moderate inflation recovery [4] - Franklin Templeton analysts suggest that a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a stronger dollar and flatten the U.S. Treasury yield curve, potentially suppressing previously favorable investment opportunities [4][5] - The private credit market is facing structural risks similar to those before the 2008 financial crisis, with significant growth from $46 billion to $1.7 trillion over the past decade, and projections of reaching $3 trillion by 2026 [3]