每日论金 | 金价或呈震荡偏强走势

Core Viewpoint - The recent factors influencing the gold market include geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy discussions, delayed economic data, and global central bank gold purchases providing long-term support [1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions are expected to continue providing a stable safe-haven support for international gold prices, with no substantial easing anticipated in the short term [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's policy dynamics are dominating market fluctuations, with the release of the October monetary policy meeting minutes and key official speeches this week. Market focus is on inflation assessments and discussions regarding the timing of interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to 44%, and the minutes and speeches will further calibrate market expectations [1] Economic Data - Delayed economic data is a critical variable, with the U.S. September non-farm payrolls and other delayed data set to be released this week. The market anticipates an increase of approximately 65,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The performance of this data will directly impact interest rate cut expectations [1] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices, continuing to bolster the market in the medium to long term [1] Price Outlook - The international gold price is likely to exhibit a strong oscillating trend this week, primarily supported by geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary easing. Technically, strong support is seen at $3,990 per ounce, with potential resistance at $4,055 per ounce, which could lead to a challenge of the $4,080 to $4,100 range. A drop below key support may test $3,950 per ounce. Short-term volatility is anticipated due to data and monetary policy perspectives, with an overall expected fluctuation range of $3,950 to $4,100 per ounce [1]