Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war raises questions about how China should prepare for potential changes in the geopolitical landscape, regardless of whether Russia ultimately wins or loses the conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Diversification - China should accelerate its energy diversification strategy to mitigate risks associated with potential disruptions in energy supply routes with Russia, even if Russia wins the war [3]. - If Russia wins, its energy export dynamics will change significantly, potentially leading to a shift in its energy cooperation with China and Europe, which could affect the favorable conditions currently enjoyed by China [4][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - A victorious Russia may leverage its increased autonomy in energy exports to threaten China's energy security, as Russia's international influence would rise, complicating its strategic relationship with China [5][7]. - The possibility of Russia adopting a more aggressive stance towards China, similar to its historical behavior during the Soviet era, cannot be ruled out, especially if Russian interests conflict with those of China [7]. Group 3: Military and Diplomatic Preparedness - China must enhance its military deployments and diplomatic efforts to prepare for uncertainties stemming from Russia's potential rise in energy and international influence [9]. - Strengthening international diplomatic mediation is crucial for China to avoid severe international turmoil that could arise from shifts in alliances and increased geopolitical tensions following the end of the Russia-Ukraine war [11].
中国最好做足充分的打算,俄罗斯一旦打赢了,我们得做好三件事
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-18 11:13