为什么本轮周期总有大利好，你的币却一直跌？

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has not responded positively to recent institutional interest and regulatory clarity, leading to a disconnect between potential and actual market performance [3][8] - The market's current valuation of cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins, appears to be based on speculative trading rather than sustainable economic value [15][23] Market Dynamics - Despite significant developments such as the launch of ETFs and increased institutional participation, the market has not seen corresponding price increases, indicating that positive news may already be priced in [3][6] - The total market capitalization of altcoins is approximately $1.5 trillion, but their underlying narratives are considered weaker compared to Bitcoin, which has a market cap of about $1.9 trillion [4][5] Valuation Concerns - Ethereum's market cap is around $400 billion, with annual revenue from fees and MEV estimated at $1-2 billion, leading to a price-to-sales ratio of 200-400 times, which is deemed unsustainable [13][14] - Solana, with a market cap of approximately $75-80 billion, generates over $1 billion in annual revenue, resulting in a more reasonable price-to-sales ratio of 20-60 times [13][14] Revenue Sustainability - The income generated by major Layer 1 blockchains is characterized as highly cyclical and speculative, akin to casino revenues, rather than stable, predictable cash flows [10][14] - The industry must transition from speculative trading to generating real, recurring economic value to justify current valuations [15][23] Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency sector is still in its early stages, but there is a pressing need to focus on real user adoption and sustainable business models rather than speculative trading [17][21] - The next decade may see significant opportunities in integrating cryptocurrency technology into established businesses, provided it can demonstrate cost efficiency and improved functionality [20][22]