铝价再迎上行催化？欧盟拟限制废铝出口 全球供应或再收紧

Core Points - The European Commission plans to restrict aluminum scrap exports to prevent a shortage of raw materials necessary for decarbonization in the EU aluminum industry [1][3] - The export volume of aluminum scrap from the EU is projected to reach a record 12.6 million tons in 2024, a 50% increase compared to five years ago, with most of it being sent to Asia [1] - The U.S. tariffs on aluminum, particularly the 50% import duty on aluminum products and a 15% duty on scrap, have led to increased imports of scrap into the U.S. and reduced exports, making EU supplies more attractive to Asian buyers [1] Industry Insights - The EU has started monitoring export situations since July and will assess the need for action [2] - The new measures to address aluminum scrap exports are expected to be implemented by spring 2026, aiming for a balanced approach that considers the interests of producers, recyclers, and downstream industries [3] - Aluminum plays a crucial role in decarbonization efforts, as recycling aluminum consumes only 5% of the energy required to produce aluminum from bauxite [3] - The recycling industry argues that the export of scrap is a result of insufficient domestic demand and the EU's limited capacity to process mixed waste [3] - Aluminum is widely used across various sectors, including transportation, construction, and electronics, due to its lightweight, corrosion resistance, excellent conductivity, and 100% recyclability [3] Market Dynamics - Global aluminum supply and demand are tightening due to tariffs and production restrictions in China, leading to fluctuations in aluminum prices [5] - Current LME aluminum prices hover around $2,800 per ton, remaining at the highest levels since 2022, with analysts predicting prices could exceed $3,000 per ton [5]