Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Benzinga·2025-11-18 10:36Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs anticipates a significant increase in central-bank gold purchases for November, driven by a shift in reserve management as policymakers hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [1] - Goldman's estimates indicate central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, a notable rise from the 21 tons projected for August, suggesting strong buying momentum through year-end [1] Reporting and Transparency Issues - A large portion of central bank gold purchases remains unreported, with the World Gold Council estimating that only one-third of global central bank buying is reported to the IMF, down from approximately 90% four years ago [2] - China's official monthly disclosures show minimal purchases, with only 1.9 tons reported in August and July, and 2.2 tons in June, leading analysts to believe these figures do not reflect actual buying [3] China's Accumulation Strategy - Société Générale estimates that China could accumulate up to 250 tons of gold this year through trade flows, accounting for over one-third of global central-bank demand [4] - China's strategy involves minimal disclosure of gold purchases to avoid potential repercussions from the U.S. administration, as gold is viewed as a hedge against the U.S. [6] Market Dynamics and Price Outlook - The reluctance to report gold purchases is linked to a desire to prevent front-running in an increasingly illiquid market, with delivery timelines in the London Bullion Market Association extending up to eight weeks [6] - Despite a strong performance in gold prices, institutions are optimistic about continued outperformance, with Goldman projecting a target price of $4,900 for gold by 2026 [7]