小米25q3业绩投资人点评

Core Insights - The overall smartphone market is experiencing a downturn, with Xiaomi's revenue for Q3 2025 at 47.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.4% [1] - The IoT segment, including computers and large appliances, saw revenue of 26.1 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 33% [1] - Internet services revenue reached 9.4 billion in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4% [1] - The automotive segment reported revenue of 29.9 billion in Q3 2025, a substantial year-on-year increase of 200% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% [1] - Fair value changes and other income reached 8.2 billion in Q3 2025, contributing nearly 50% to pre-tax net profit, indicating that core pre-tax net profit growth was only about 12.4% when excluding this impact [1] Financial Performance - Depreciation for Q3 2025 was 1.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, which is expected to further impact net profit as production capacity increases [2] - Domestic investors have purchased 12 billion in the last month, yet the stock price continues to decline, suggesting that the company's fundamentals are more influenced by foreign investors [2] Industry Outlook - The smartphone and internet services sectors are increasingly affected by the overall economic downturn and rising storage costs, leading to potential valuation pressure [3] - The IoT business has underperformed expectations significantly, with the impact of national subsidies being more severe than anticipated, indicating a pessimistic outlook [4] - The automotive business's valuation is heavily reliant on new orders, with traditional business performance potentially affecting overall valuation. Current market valuation stands at approximately 1.06 trillion HKD, with automotive valuation around 660 billion HKD [4] - The company may face a shift from being perceived as a tech stock to a consumer stock, which could have significant implications for investors [4]