终于低下高贵头颅，美国公开表态：若中国买大豆，希望先找美国

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges due to a decline in exports to China, which has shifted its sourcing to South America, particularly Brazil, resulting in economic distress for American farmers [3][6][14]. Group 1: Export Dynamics - In 2024, U.S. soybean export value reached $24.58 billion, with China accounting for over half of the imports at nearly 27 million tons, valued at $12.64 billion [3]. - By 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to drop significantly, with potential orders of 14 to 16 million tons lost, leading to a 55% increase in farm bankruptcies across the U.S. [3][4]. - The share of U.S. soybeans in the Chinese market has plummeted from 40% in 2016 to 18% in 2024, with Brazil becoming the primary supplier [6][14]. Group 2: Supply Chain Changes - In the first half of 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China were only 5.9 million tons, with exports halting completely after May [4]. - Brazil's soybean production is expected to exceed 170 million tons in 2025, with 79.9% of its exports directed to China [6]. - China's investments in Brazilian infrastructure have reduced logistics costs by 15% and improved efficiency by 20% [8]. Group 3: Domestic Impact and Policy Response - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing a crisis, with 94% of family farms facing financial strain and agricultural debt projected to surpass $562 billion [3][11]. - The U.S. government has proposed a $10 to $14 billion aid plan, but actual direct subsidies are limited to $35 million, which is insufficient compared to the estimated $45 billion in agricultural losses [11]. - The shift in trade settlement methods, with over 60% of soybean trade between China and Brazil now conducted in local currencies, undermines the traditional dominance of the U.S. dollar in agricultural trade [11]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - American farmers are increasingly anxious about their sales prospects, with rising discontent reflected in letters to the White House and potential political repercussions for the current administration [12][14]. - Despite a recent agreement between U.S. and Chinese leaders to expand agricultural trade, Chinese buyers remain cautious, particularly due to quality concerns that have led to import suspensions [14][16]. - The diversification of China's soybean import strategy, including increased domestic production and reduced reliance on single sources, indicates a structural shift in the market [9][14].