美银调查：投资者现金头寸跌破关键阈值触发股市卖出信号 潜在AI泡沫为最大尾部风险

Group 1 - A monthly survey by Bank of America indicates that investor cash positions have fallen below a critical threshold, triggering a sell signal in the stock market amid rising concerns over the overvaluation of tech stocks [1] - The average cash holding of global fund managers has dropped to 3.7%, a level that has only been seen 20 times since 2002, historically leading to stock market declines within one to three months [1] - The MSCI Global Index, which has risen 17% this year, is showing signs of pressure, while the S&P 500 index has dropped approximately 3% from its October peak [1] Group 2 - Investors' exposure to the stock market is at its highest level since February, with concerns that if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates in December, the market may face further adjustments [4] - The survey identifies a potential AI bubble as the largest tail risk, with investors believing for the first time in two decades that companies are over-investing [4] - Approximately 42% of respondents expect international stocks to be the best-performing asset class next year, while only 22% believe U.S. stocks will lead [4] Group 3 - As tech giants continue to invest heavily in AI, investors are reassessing economic growth prospects, leading to increased pressure on financial markets [5] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a significant sell-off, with a decline of 3.2% since reaching a historical high on October 28, marking the largest drop since the February to April downturn [5] - The index has closed below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 139 trading days, breaking a record of the second-longest period above this trend line in the century [5] Group 4 - The Nasdaq index has also fallen below its 50-day moving average, ending the longest streak above this level since October 1995 [6] - There are concerning signals within the Nasdaq, as the number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds those reaching new highs, indicating weak market internals and low chances for a rebound [6]