MongoDB(US:MDB) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-18 14:20Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Q3 earnings season for US software companies is unlikely to serve as a positive turning point for market sentiment due to persistent "dual concerns" regarding the unclear benefits of AI for application software companies and the high capital expenditures of hyperscalers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Concerns - Investors are worried about the disruptive potential of AI on existing application software companies, referred to as "AI overhang" [2]. - There are concerns that hyperscalers' capital expenditures to support AI development may be excessively high, potentially impacting future investments and the ecosystem [2]. - Despite analysts at Barclays disagreeing with these concerns, they acknowledge that Q3 earnings data may not provide strong evidence to dispel market doubts [2]. Group 2: Macro Signals and Industry Indicators - Barclays' recent VAR channel survey indicates a slight slowdown in growth expectations for Q3, which typically is a seasonal low period, adding pressure to Q4 outlook [3]. - Investors are expected to focus more on future earnings guidance rather than Q3 performance, with a notable shift in growth expectations among surveyed respondents [6]. - Job posting data in the tech sector shows a decline, with software engineering job postings experiencing a year-over-year growth rate decrease [6][8]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - A survey regarding Salesforce (CRM) indicates a significant increase in customer interest in adopting AI, although this is seen as a future hope rather than an immediate impact on Q3 earnings [12][13]. - In the infrastructure software sector, Barclays prefers MongoDB (MDB) over Snowflake (SNOW) due to lower market expectations and clearer growth drivers for the upcoming year [14][18]. - MongoDB's performance is bolstered by a favorable renewal cycle for enterprise agreements, providing a mechanism for accelerated revenue growth [18].