要动武？日本股市先"崩"为敬！高市早苗的豪赌，撞上中国经济铁壁

Group 1: Political Developments - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent statements suggest a potential military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, indicating a shift in Japan's defense posture [1] - Takaichi's government plans to accelerate defense spending to 2% of GDP, originally set for fiscal year 2027, raising concerns given Japan's high debt levels [3] - The government is also considering changes to its "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," which could allow for the introduction of nuclear weapons [3] Group 2: Military Capabilities - Japan has been quietly building significant offensive capabilities, including the development of "counterstrike capabilities" and the procurement of 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles [4] - The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force has modified two Izumo-class destroyers to operate F-35B fighter jets, enhancing its naval power [4] - Plans are underway to establish approximately 130 large ammunition depots across the country by 2035 [4] Group 3: Economic Context - Japan's economic dependency on China is substantial, with a 59.1% increase in investments in China in the first half of 2025, and over 30% reliance on Chinese supplies for key industries like automotive and semiconductors [7] - Japan's energy security is precarious, with 98% of its oil imported and 88% of that reliant on the Strait of Malacca, which is outside Japan's control [7] - The government's debt exceeds twice its GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of increased defense spending [7] Group 4: Public Reaction - Takaichi's remarks have sparked widespread criticism domestically, with former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and other political figures expressing concern over the implications of such statements [8] - Public protests have occurred, with citizens demanding Takaichi retract her statements and apologize [8] Group 5: Historical Context - Analysts draw parallels between Takaichi's rhetoric and historical narratives used to justify Japan's past military expansions, warning that such language may serve as a pretext for aggressive military policies [10] - The potential shift away from Japan's pacifist constitution could escalate regional tensions rather than enhance national security [10]