Warning: S&P 500 flashes start of bear cycle

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index has fallen below its 50-day moving average, indicating a potential broader market downturn, closing at 6,630.21 with a 0.6% drop in the past day [1] - Technical signals suggest that the current pullback could develop into a more significant decline if conditions persist [2] Technical Analysis - A bearish divergence is forming on the weekly RSI, with the index printing higher highs while the RSI trends lower, reminiscent of the setup seen in mid-November 2021 [3] - The 100-day moving average has been a key support level over the past five months, and a weekly close below this level could indicate a structural breakdown, transitioning from bullish to bearish cycles [4][5] Price Projections - If a breakdown is confirmed, the S&P 500 could retrace towards the 200-week moving average, which marked the bottom of the 2022 bear cycle after a decline of approximately 27.6% [5] - The next major accumulation zone is estimated between 5,300 and 5,000, assuming the recent peak holds [6] Market Sentiment - Despite the bearish signals, some analysts on Wall Street remain optimistic, projecting that the S&P 500 could still reach 7,000 next year [7]