特朗普说对了，关税降通胀获支撑，关键数据将补发，降息概率走低

Group 1 - A research report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve suggests that a 4% increase in tariffs could lead to a 2% decrease in inflation, which contradicts conventional economic wisdom [1] - The report indicates that while inflation may decrease, unemployment could rise by approximately 1% as a consequence [3] - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of only 2.4% in May 2025, which was lower than market expectations, but subsequent data indicated a rise to 2.7% in June, marking the largest increase since February [3] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs extends beyond consumer prices, as Japan's economy shrank for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP [7] - The Trump administration's proposal to distribute $2,000 to families earning under $100,000 faces challenges, including a projected cost of $600 billion, which exceeds anticipated tariff revenues [9][15] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a response to conflicting economic signals, with internal divisions among policymakers regarding the timing and extent of rate changes [11][12] Group 3 - Companies are experiencing increased cost pressures, with a survey indicating an average expected cost increase of 4.4%, of which 1.7 percentage points are attributed to tariffs [13] - Retail prices have shown upward pressure, with clothing prices rising by 0.4% and furniture prices increasing by 0.4% as well, indicating that tariff costs are being passed on to consumers [13] - The Federal Reserve's internal disagreements are evident, with some members advocating for more aggressive rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation targets [12][15] Group 4 - The inflation rate reached 2.9% in August, the highest level since January, while non-farm employment increased by only 22,000, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [14] - Financial markets reacted unpredictably to the Fed's rate cut announcement, with initial gains reversing as comments from the Fed Chair were interpreted [14] - The Trump administration's tariff policies are reshaping global trade dynamics, with selective agreements made with Latin American countries to lower costs, while certain products still face high tariffs [14][15]