Meta Platforms Drops 18% in a Month: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Meta Platforms' shares have declined by 17.9% over the past month, underperforming the broader Computer & Technology sector and advertising peers like Amazon, Alphabet, and Snap [1][2] - The company is expected to capture over 50% of global ad spending this year and 56.2% by 2026 [1] Financial Performance - Alphabet, Amazon, and Snap have seen share price increases of 11.1%, 7.5%, and 5.8%, respectively, while the broader sector has dropped by 0.6% [2] - Meta's capital expenditure is projected to be between $70 billion and $72 billion, up from previous guidance of $66-$72 billion [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 earnings is $8.16 per share, reflecting a 0.7% increase over the past 30 days, indicating a 1.75% growth year-over-year [12] - Expected total revenues for Q4 2025 are in the range of $56-59 billion, with a consensus estimate of $58.43 billion, suggesting a 20.76% growth year-over-year [13] AI Integration and User Engagement - Meta's integration of AI across its platforms is enhancing user engagement, with over 3.54 billion daily users contributing to a significant data pool [7][8] - Time spent on Threads increased by 30%, while Facebook saw a 5% increase in the third quarter of 2025 [9] - The annual run rate for video content across Meta's apps has surpassed $50 billion, driven by the popularity of Reels [9] Advertising Performance - The average price per ad increased by 10% year-over-year, benefiting from improved ad performance and higher advertiser demand [10] - The annual run rate for Meta's AI-powered ad tools has exceeded $60 billion, indicating strong growth in the advertising segment [10] - The Advantage+ creative suite has seen a 20% increase in the number of advertisers utilizing its video generation features [11] Valuation and Market Position - Meta shares are considered overvalued, trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 6.63X, compared to the industry average of 4.68X and significantly higher than Amazon's 3.18X and Snap's 2.13X [14] - The company is currently rated as a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that investors should wait for a more favorable entry point [19]