马来西亚产出重稀土！西方突围，中国会失守全球98%的垄断地位吗

Core Insights - Rare earth elements are essential in modern industry, particularly in defense and high-tech sectors, with heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium being crucial for manufacturing high-strength magnets and high-temperature alloys [2] - China dominates the global rare earth refining capacity, controlling over 90% of the market, especially in heavy rare earth separation, which is nearly 100% [2][6] - Western countries are attempting to diversify their rare earth supply chains due to reliance on China, but face significant technological and cost challenges [2][4] Group 1: China's Dominance - China's annual production of heavy rare earths exceeds 150,000 tons, far surpassing Lynas's output, which is only 1% of China's level [6] - China holds 439 patents related to refining processes, with purity levels consistently above 99% [6] - The Chinese government is expanding export controls on rare earths, adding five more elements to the list, indicating a strategic move to maintain its market position [15] Group 2: Western Efforts - Lynas Rare Earths has achieved a breakthrough in heavy rare earth separation at its plant in Malaysia, with plans to produce dysprosium oxide by May 2025 and expand to terbium [4] - The plant is designed to meet military demands, with an initial capacity of 1,500 tons of separated oxides, which will be increased to 5,000 tons by 2026 [4] - Western countries, including the US, EU, and Japan, are investing in overseas projects to reduce dependence on a single source, but face challenges in local regulations and training [7][11] Group 3: Technological Competition - China is advancing in technology, with research institutions reducing the development cycle for neodymium-iron-boron magnets to 17 months using quantum computing models [6] - The Chinese recycling system has achieved a 35% recovery rate, which helps alleviate pressure on mining resources [13] - Western companies are struggling with high costs and dependency on government subsidies, making it difficult to compete with China's established supply chain [11][15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global rare earth competition is fundamentally a technological race, with China controlling the entire lifecycle from mining to recycling [18] - Western efforts to break free from dependence on China are expected to take a decade, with limited short-term impact [18] - The establishment of alliances, such as the BRICS rare earth alliance, aims to enhance resource security and increase production capacity [11][15]