中国制造2025逆袭美国？黄奇帆深度解析：中美科技暗战与全球产业链大洗牌

Core Insights - The essence of the China-US competition is highlighted by Huang Qifan, indicating that China's manufacturing value added is twice that of the US, covering all industrial categories globally [1] - China's export of equipment manufacturing has surpassed 90%, marking a transition from "shirt for planes" to "independent full industrial chain" [1] - The trade war initiated by Trump inadvertently boosted China's export to $3.3 trillion, with automobile exports reaching 6 million units, exceeding the combined total of the US, Japan, and Germany [1] Industry Analysis - The essence of the industrial chain war is emphasized, with China leveraging its mature process chips (70% of the global 28nm+ market) to counteract US technology blockades [1] - The "high value-added upgrade + dual circulation strategy" has allowed China to transfer low-end production capacity to Southeast Asia while building land-based trade routes like the China-Europe Railway Express and the China-Laos Railway [1] - Huang Qifan asserts that the US's strategy of "manufacturing return" has failed, while China is achieving full-chain digitalization through industrial internet, significantly enhancing production efficiency [1] Technological Landscape - China is accelerating its layout in five key areas: new energy (over 60% global share in photovoltaics/storage), AI large models (Huawei Ascend series breakthroughs), and biomedicine [1] - In response to the US's 3nm chip blockade, China is focusing on the mature process that meets 80% of market demand, employing a "change track" strategy to dismantle technological bottlenecks [1] - Huang Qifan emphasizes that the transformation of the industrial internet has tripled the response speed of Chinese factories, an ecological advantage that the US cannot replicate [1] Currency Strategy - Currently, the proportion of RMB settlement is less than 3%, which is significantly imbalanced compared to its 17% contribution to GDP [1] - Huang Qifan proposes a "Belt and Road + digital currency" strategy to bind trade settlement through infrastructure, using capital controls to build a financial moat [1] - He predicts that when RMB settlement surpasses 25%, the US dollar's hegemony will face substantial challenges [1] Strategic Predictions - The long-term industrial chain battle indicates that the US's attempts to ally with India and Southeast Asia will not shake China's dual advantages of "industrial cluster + technological upgrade" [2] - The technology war is evolving from hardware blockades to competition in productive services, necessitating the cultivation of "Huawei-style leading enterprises" in China [2] - The currency battle is expected to be prolonged, with the digital RMB's cross-border payment pilot covering 130 countries, gradually undermining the US dollar system [2]