货币政策将更加注重精准、协同和均衡丨董希淼专栏

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for October indicates a stable development in the banking sector, with a need for a more precise and coordinated monetary policy moving forward [2][6]. Monetary Supply and Financing Structure - As of October 2025, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.2% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate despite a higher base from the previous year [2]. - Narrow money supply (M1) increased by 6.2%, showing a recovery from previous lows, indicating improved business activity and consumer demand [2]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 2%, reflecting a shift towards demand deposits [2]. Total Financing and Loan Growth - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months reached 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year's figure by 3.83 trillion yuan [3]. - In October, social financing and RMB loans increased by 815 billion yuan and 220 billion yuan, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decrease [3]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating a decline in overall financing costs [3]. Direct Financing and Policy Tools - Direct financing through corporate bonds and stock financing showed positive growth, with net bond financing up by 1.482 billion yuan and stock financing up by 412 billion yuan in October [4]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools contributed to an increase in entrusted loans by 165.3 billion yuan, indicating a stronger collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [5]. Economic Demand and Loan Trends - There is a noted decline in household loans, with a reduction of 360.4 billion yuan in October, reflecting weak consumer demand [5]. - Corporate loan growth was primarily supported by bill financing, while long-term loans showed only a slight increase, indicating insufficient effective demand from businesses [5]. Banking Sector Indicators - The net interest margin for commercial banks remained stable at 1.42%, but there are concerns about rising non-performing loans [6]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the central bank is being discussed, but significant reductions are unlikely in the short term [6]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - Future monetary policy is expected to focus on precision, coordination, and balance, with an emphasis on directing financial resources to key sectors such as technology and green initiatives [7]. - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission [7].