优果紧俏！苹果期价震荡上行，后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures prices have been on an upward trend since October, with a cumulative increase of approximately 900 yuan/ton, driven by concerns over reduced production and quality for the 2025/2026 season [1][3]. Supply Side Analysis - The recent price movements in apple futures reflect market worries about a decline in production and quality due to adverse weather conditions affecting key production areas like Henan, Shaanxi, and Shandong [3]. - The new season's apple production is estimated at 34.23 million tons, a decrease of 3.12 million tons compared to the previous season, with quality issues such as fruit russeting and water cracking reported in Shandong [4]. - As of November 13, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is approximately 55.87%, down 7.52 percentage points year-on-year, with total inventory at 7.36 million tons, a decline of 12.13% from the previous year [6]. Demand Side Analysis - There is a strong demand for high-quality apples, with traders actively purchasing from regions with limited inventory, particularly in western areas like Gansu [5]. - The market is witnessing a price disparity between high-quality and lower-quality apples, with prices for small apples in Yantai reaching 1.70-1.80 yuan/pound, and premium varieties priced around 2.00 yuan/pound [5]. - The upcoming winter season is expected to boost apple demand, especially with the approach of Christmas and New Year, which may lead to a near-term strong performance in apple prices [6]. Market Outlook - The pricing logic for apple futures is shifting from supply-driven to consumption-driven as the purchasing phase progresses, with the potential for prices to stabilize at high levels [7]. - The combination of reduced production, declining quality, and rising purchase prices provides support for prices, while insufficient consumer demand poses upward pressure [7].