优果紧俏！苹果期价震荡上行 后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - Apple futures prices have been rising since October, with a cumulative increase of approximately 900 yuan/ton, driven by concerns over reduced production and quality for the 2025/2026 season [2] Supply Side Analysis - Adverse weather conditions in key production areas such as Henan, Shaanxi, and Shandong have negatively impacted apple yield and quality, leading to a significant decline in new season apple production, estimated at 34.23 million tons, down 3.12 million tons from the previous season [2][4] - The national cold storage inventory ratio is approximately 55.87%, a decrease of 7.52 percentage points year-on-year, with total inventory at 7.36 million tons, down 12.13% from last year [4] Demand Side Analysis - There is a strong demand for high-quality apples, with traders actively purchasing from regions with low inventory, particularly in Gansu [3][4] - The market is experiencing a price disparity based on quality, with small apples seeing price increases due to demand from foreign trade and speculative buyers [3] Market Trends - The apple market is expected to maintain high prices in the short term, especially as winter approaches, which is a peak consumption season for apples [4][5] - The pricing logic for apple futures is shifting from supply-driven to consumption-driven as the harvest season progresses, indicating potential volatility in future pricing [5]