成本支撑叠加政策利多 铸造铝合金中期维持强势

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures in June 2025 has provided strong support for the development of the recycled metal industry, with prices showing a strong correlation with aluminum prices and gradually increasing [1] - The price of casting aluminum alloy futures has surpassed 21,000 yuan/ton, driven by the overall strength of aluminum prices and specific fundamental factors, including the shutdown of an aluminum plant in Iceland [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Recycled Aluminum - Recycled aluminum has transitioned from a "supplementary role" to a "strategic necessity" due to its significant energy-saving and emission-reduction attributes, with production energy consumption at only about 5% of electrolytic aluminum and carbon emissions at 0.23 tons per ton produced compared to 11.2 tons for electrolytic aluminum [2] - The development of the recycled aluminum industry is essential for enhancing supply security and achieving carbon neutrality goals, especially given the rigid challenges in global aluminum supply and increasing carbon emission regulations [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Industry Goals - Recent policies, including the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" and the 15th Five-Year Plan, have set clear targets for the recycled aluminum industry, aiming for a production of 11.5 million tons of recycled aluminum as part of a broader goal of exceeding 20 million tons in total recycled metal output [3] - The policies emphasize green low-carbon transformation and the promotion of a circular economy, supporting high-quality development in the recycled aluminum sector [3] Group 4: Supply Chain Challenges - The recycled aluminum industry faces significant challenges, particularly regarding raw material supply, with domestic recycled non-ferrous metal recovery reaching 15.65 million tons in 2024, but the overall supply of scrap aluminum remains tight [4] - The domestic scrap aluminum recycling system is underdeveloped, leading to quality inconsistencies and difficulties in utilization, while international policies limiting scrap metal exports further constrain supply [4] Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competition for scrap aluminum resources is intensifying globally, with the U.S. currently accounting for nearly 85% of its aluminum production from recycled sources, and proposed measures to restrict material outflow could significantly impact available scrap aluminum for markets including China [5] - Despite the tightening supply of scrap aluminum, China's recycled aluminum production capacity is expanding, projected to exceed 14 million tons by 2025, leading to a potential oversupply situation [5] - The automotive sector remains a key consumer of recycled aluminum, with about 70% of recycled casting aluminum alloys used in automotive applications, indicating a high dependency on this market [5] Group 6: Regulatory and Economic Pressures - The recycled aluminum industry is experiencing increased operational costs due to stricter environmental and safety regulations, alongside adjustments in tax refund policies that may pressure profit margins, particularly for companies reliant on subsidies [7] - The anticipated impact of these policies is already being felt, with some smaller companies facing production cuts or shutdowns, while larger firms are adjusting raw material procurement prices [7] Group 7: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The price of casting aluminum alloy futures has been steadily rising, supported by strong demand and seasonal factors, with a focus on the resistance level around 21,500 yuan/ton [8] - The overall market sentiment indicates that while supply constraints and cost pressures exist, the demand from the automotive sector may provide support for prices in the near term [9]