Workflow
供需宽松格局延续 纸浆上行空间受限
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-11-19 00:14

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the pulp futures market has shown a recovery since November, with prices rising over 9% from a low of 5042 yuan/ton to above 5550 yuan/ton, driven by seasonal demand and cautious purchasing behavior from paper mills [1] - UPM and Metsa reported losses in their paper businesses for the first half of the year, while Sodra's pulp business faced an operating loss of 220 million Swedish Krona in Q2, reflecting a general downturn in the pulp and paper industry [1] - The supply-demand balance for pulp is currently weak, with cautious purchasing from paper mills leading to low inventory levels, which may trigger a replenishment cycle if demand improves [1] Group 2 - The downstream paper market shows mixed signals, with white card paper prices stabilizing and recovering to May levels after a decline during the third quarter, supported by price increases from leading paper companies [2] - The demand for consumer paper remains stable, with a notable increase in exports of consumer paper by 20% to 30%, which is expected to maintain overall demand confidence in the last two months of the year [2] - The cultural paper segment, particularly double glue paper, faces challenges from digital alternatives, declining birth rates, and reduced demand for traditional print media, leading to a subdued market outlook [2][3] Group 3 - The current downturn in double glue paper is attributed to issues on the supply, inventory, and profit fronts, with a total inventory of 1.8813 million tons, marking a 7.66% year-on-year increase [3] - Despite plans from several paper companies to raise double glue paper prices by 200 yuan/ton, the price increase is driven by profit pressure rather than actual demand improvement, making it difficult for downstream acceptance [3] - Overall, while the pulp demand outlook remains optimistic with the start of the double glue paper bidding season, supply pressures persist, and overseas production cuts have not significantly impacted the market [3]