中信证券食品饮料行业2026年投资策略：基本面触底在即

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a cautious optimism for the demand side of the consumer goods sector in 2026, following two years of declining volume and price [1] Group 1: Industry Demand Trends - The consumer goods sector has experienced a continuous decline in both volume and price for two consecutive years [1] - Channel inventory has largely been adjusted, returning to a healthy level [1] - There is a stabilization trend in consumer goods demand observed in Q3 2025, which is expected to carry into 2026, a year anticipated to be significant for consumption due to preparations for the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Price and Competition Outlook - Despite the cautious optimism regarding demand, the terminal prices for consumer goods may still face slight pressure year-on-year in 2026 due to weak demand and ongoing trends towards cost-effective consumption [1] - The intensity of competition in the industry has not increased significantly, suggesting that the decline in prices may be less severe compared to 2025 [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the dairy and catering sectors, which have seen significant stock price adjustments over the past 2-3 years and are currently at historical low static valuations [1] - These sectors are expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, leading to improvements in both performance and valuation [1]