美联储主席更替在即 全球金融体系警惕政治干预风险

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is under scrutiny, with President Trump expressing dissatisfaction with current Chair Jerome Powell and hinting at potential candidates for the position [1][2][3] Group 1: Presidential Remarks - President Trump claims to know his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair but has not disclosed the name [1] - Trump has openly criticized Powell, calling him a "fool" and expressing a desire to replace him immediately, citing interference from others [1] - The current term of Powell as Chair ends in May 2026, but his term as a board member lasts until 2028 [1] Group 2: Candidate Selection Process - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is leading the selection process, with a narrowed list of five candidates including Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder [2] - Trump describes the candidate list as containing both surprising and conventional names, indicating a potential for traditional selection methods [2] - A formal recommendation is expected to be submitted to the President after the Thanksgiving holiday, with the nominee needing Senate approval [2] Group 3: Challenges for the Next Chair - The next Federal Reserve Chair will face dual challenges: pressure from the Trump administration for low interest rates and the need to maintain global market confidence in the Fed's independence [2] - Increased political interference could undermine the credibility of the dollar and lead to volatility in international financial markets [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are critical not only for the U.S. economy but also for global capital flows, exchange rate stability, and emerging market debt risks [3]