金荣中国：美ADP就业数据再度走低，金价触底反弹加剧震荡

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a rebound on November 18, closing at $4,052.90 per ounce after reaching a high of $4,081.92 and a low of $3,997.99 [1] Employment Data - According to ADP Research, U.S. companies cut an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 1, with major layoffs announced by companies like Amazon and Target [3] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that planned layoffs reached the highest level for any October in over 20 years [3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 232,000 for the week ending October 18, consistent with mid-September levels [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 48.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 51.1% [5] - By January, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 49.7%, with a 31.9% chance of no change and an 18.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a V-shaped recovery after hitting a low of $3,997, with a subsequent rise to $4,081 during the trading session [6] - The daily chart indicates a small bullish candle with a long lower shadow, suggesting stability above the 40-day moving average [6] - Short-term indicators are showing signs of a bottoming pattern, while the four-hour chart indicates a consolidation phase below the 60-day moving average [6] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests cautious high short and low long positions, with specific entry and exit points outlined for both aggressive and conservative traders [10]