东吴证券：军贸放量叠加新质战力 四大主线引领军工新周期

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry is expected to experience a dual turning point in fundamentals and market performance in 2025, moving from a phase of "revenue growth without profit growth" to a high-quality development stage driven by "order fulfillment and performance" [1] Group 1: 2025 Industry Outlook - The military industry index is projected to show significant recovery throughout the year, with a pattern of "Q1 bottoming, Q2 recovery, Q3 acceleration, and Q4 consolidation" [1] - Core enterprises are expected to report both revenue and profit recovery, with high levels of contract liabilities and inventory confirming substantial order recovery [1] - The industry is set to end the "revenue growth without profit growth" dilemma, with operating cash flow increasing significantly and improvements in operational and profit quality [1] Group 2: 2026 Key Turning Point - The year 2026 marks a critical turning point with enhanced order certainty driven by the delivery of "14th Five-Year Plan" tail orders and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Demand structure is shifting towards new combat capabilities and consumable combat capabilities [2] - Military trade is expected to become a second growth curve, opening high-end market opportunities [2] - Deepening military-civilian integration is anticipated, with advancements in commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and nuclear fusion [2] - Financial quality is expected to improve, with cash flow and profitability entering an upward trajectory [2] Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - Focus on the main battle equipment supply chain from a military trade perspective, targeting core enterprises with assembly capabilities and overseas delivery experience [3] - Advanced combat fields such as underwater offense and defense, unmanned clusters, network electromagnetic countermeasures, and intelligent command are expected to see accelerated development [3] - Emphasis on technology-driven sectors under military-civilian integration, including commercial aerospace and key components for controllable nuclear fusion [3] - Reform and asset securitization strategies, including local state-owned capital acquisitions of quality military-related assets and central enterprise military group asset securitization [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Key investment lines include: 1. Main battle equipment supply chain: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Guokai Military Industry [4] 2. Advanced combat capabilities: China Marine Defense, StarNet Technology, AVIC Aircraft, Haige Communication [4] 3. Technology-driven sectors: Aerospace Electronics, Aerospace Power, Sihua Electronics, Lianchuang Optoelectronics [4] 4. Reform and asset securitization: Amsun Electronics, Xinhongye [4]