Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao·2025-11-19 02:34Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' new report indicates that global oil demand will continue to grow until 2040, driven by limited substitutes for aviation fuel and petrochemical products, energy demand growth outpacing low-carbon technology alternatives, and an indirect increase in demand of 3 million barrels per day due to artificial intelligence boosting global GDP [1][2] Group 1: Oil Demand Projections - Global oil demand is expected to rise from 103.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 113 million barrels per day by 2040, with an average annual increase of 600,000 barrels per day [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also projected that under current policy scenarios, global oil demand will continue to grow until 2050, highlighting a significant divergence from previous annual World Energy Outlook reports [1] Group 2: Key Drivers of Demand - The petrochemical sector is anticipated to become the main driver of oil demand growth as road transport oil consumption is expected to peak around 2030, with petrochemical oil demand (naphtha, ethane, liquefied petroleum gas) growing by an average of 500,000 barrels per day, representing a 2.1% increase [2] - Non-OECD countries are projected to contribute over 90% of the growth in petrochemical oil demand over the next 15 years, with China and the Middle East leading this growth due to the concentration of petrochemical and plastic production facilities in these regions [2] Group 3: Impact of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is expected to indirectly drive global oil demand by promoting economic growth, with an estimated increase of 3 million barrels per day by 2040 under baseline scenarios [2] - In an optimistic scenario where AI is fully adopted, this demand-boosting effect could reach up to 6 million barrels per day by 2040 [2]