美联储12月不降息概率飙升，华尔街为何仍在疯狂押注？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for December have dramatically reversed, with the probability of a cut falling below 50% in the interest rate swap market, while the options market shows a significant number of bets on a rate cut with 863,000 open SOFR contracts [1][2][4] - There is a notable internal division within the Federal Reserve, with differing opinions among officials: Waller supports a rate cut, Logan opposes it, and Schmid advocates for maintaining the current rates, leading to increased market uncertainty [1][6] - The recent economic data has been inconsistent, with rising unemployment claims and job losses in the private sector indicating a weakening labor market, while core inflation remains sticky, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [2][4][9] Group 2 - The options market's heavy betting on a rate cut contrasts sharply with the warnings from Dallas Fed President Logan, who stated that a cut would be difficult to support unless there is a significant drop in inflation or a collapse in employment [4][6] - The market's reaction to the upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report, is critical; a weak jobs report could bolster dovish sentiments, while strong data could reinforce hawkish views [9] - The current situation reflects a broader market anxiety, with traders employing strategies reminiscent of 2019, anticipating that the Fed may ultimately compromise in response to market expectations [9]